SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION
IN THE PHILIPPINES FOR 2001
Oceanic conditions in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP):
- Neutral conditions have persisted since mid August until the end of 2000
- Results of statistical and coupled models from advanced global climate
prediction centers indicate a tendency towards warmer sea surface temperature
during the second half of 2001 that could lead to the development of an
El Niño episode.
Climate Outlook for 2001
January to March
Neutral sea surface temperature will continue to be observed in the CEEP. Near
normal rainfall conditions are expected in the country, with above normal
rainfall over the eastern sections.
April to June
Near normal rainfall will continue to prevail in many parts of the country
with patches of below normal rainfall. Normal start of the rainy season
associated with the southwest monsoon is expected.
July to September
Above normal sea surface temperature or weak El Ni&tilden;o conditions are
expected to prevail in the CEEP. Near normal to below normal rainfall
conditions will occur. There is a possibility of weak southwest monsoon
activity and early termination of the rainy season. Total number of
tropical cyclones ranging from seven to eleven is expected to enter the
Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
October to December
Below normal rainfall could be anticipated in many parts of the country due
to the existence of El Ni&tilden;o in the CEEP. Four to five tropical
cyclones are likely to occur within the PAR.
Issued 01 January 2001
For Inquiries:
In Manila, the following may be contacted -
Dr. Aida M. Jose, Chief of the Climatology & Agrometeorology Branch (CAB)
Mr. Nathaniel A. Cruz, Senior Weather Specialist
Mr. Vicente Manalo III, Weather Specialist I
Mr. Ernesto R. Verceles, Weather Specialist I
Tel. No. (632) 373-3434
Fax No. (632) 373-3433
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